Will the EU get it right this time?

EU leaders meet to refocus Mediterranean policy but critics fear vague summit conclusions.

The European Union’s response to the events in north Africa is taking shape ahead of an emergency summit of EU leaders in Brussels tomorrow (11 March), but it is also becoming clear that the EU’s rewriting of its north Africa policy will take months and that the debate among member states will only get more difficult. 

On Tuesday (8 March), the European Commission adopted a strategy for a “Partnership for democracy and shared prosperity with the southern Mediterranean”, which is supposed to support democratic change in the region.

The new strategy is a response to pro-democracy uprisings that have swept the Arab world, leading to the toppling of long-standing regimes in Tunisia (14 January) and Egypt (11 February), and to a recognition that the EU’s existing policy has failed to empower – or even encourage – democratic forces in a region that is still in the grip of autocratic leaders.

A new approach

According to the strategy, a “commitment” to free and fair elections should be the “entry qualification” for the partnership, which would deprive many of the current participants in the EU’s Neighbourhood Policy of access to the approximately €4 billion that it has available over the next three years.

The strategy proposes to focus support to the EU’s southern neighbours on democratic reform, civil society and economic development. Democratic and economic reforms are to be rewarded; failure to reform will lead to reallocation of funding. Support to civil society is to be increased. “The EU’s commitment is to the people [of north Africa] and this crisis has shown quite clearly that we need working contacts also at that level,” an official said, acknowledging that the current approach has not opened up such channels.

The strategy holds out the prospect of “enhanced mobility” between the southern neighbours and the EU, which is bound to prove controversial among the member states, many of which are preoccupied with the threat of uncontrolled economic migration.

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The strategy proposes to promote “inclusive economic development” through support to small and medium-sized enterprises and through increased lending by the European Investment Bank and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. Negotiating more ambitious trade agreements is another point on the strategy’s economic agenda.

Fact File

MEPS’ demands

MEPs are calling for a total redraft of the EU’s policy towards its southern neighbours and for all financial resources available to be devoted to promoting democracy in the region.

Mario Mauro, an Italian centre-right MEP, said that a new strategy had to be created as soon as possible to ensure the EU could get a grip over the changing political situation in the region and to support moves toward democracy.

“We can do a lot. We should clarify relations and we can give them privileged partnership relations,” he said.

Heidi Hautala, a Finnish Green MEP and chair of the Parliament’s sub-committee on human rights, said that the EU had to come up with “a large-scale plan” that would not only promote democratic reforms but rebuild state institutions and rule of law, as well as creating jobs.

“The amounts offered so far by the EU do not come even close to what is needed,” she said. Hautala warned that if the EU does not come up with enough aid now, it could spell disaster for efforts to forge closer ties with the countries in the region.

Ioannis Kasoulides, a Cypriot centre-right MEP and a former foreign minister, said that the EU had to ensure any aid it now gives to Tunisia, Libya or Egypt would be linked to progress in democratic reforms. He said that money targeted to a country that fails to make progress on democratic standards should be shifted elsewhere.

The EU’s response so far

Tunisia

President Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali resigns (14 January); EU imposes restrictive measures (asset freezes, travel bans) against Ben Ali and associates (31 January); Catherine Ashton, EU foreign policy chief, travels to Tunis, announces €17 million in immediate support to democratic transition (14 February).

Egypt

President Hosni Mubarak resigns (11 February); Ashton visits Cairo (22 February); currently “too early” for a support package as interim government still discussing priorities; EU foreign ministers expected to impose sanctions on former regime figures (21 March).

Libya

EU dispatches expert teams to borders with Tunisia and Egypt (23 February); co-ordinates use of member states’ assets in evacuating EU nationals and transferring Egyptian migrant workers to Egypt through the Civil Protection Mechanism (from 23 February); imposes restrictive measures against Muammar Qaddafi and associates (arms embargo, asset freezes, travel bans) (28 February); provides €30m in humanitarian assistance (3 March); Kristalina Georgieva, European commissioner for humanitarian aid, visits Tunisian side of border (3 March); Agostino Miozzo, managing director for crisis co-ordination at European External Action Service, visits Tripoli on fact-finding mission (6-7 March).

Continued Challenges

Migration

Frontex, EU border agency, launches operation on Italian island of Lampedusa after the arrival of thousands of Tunisians (20 February); EU announces that up to €25m in emergency assistance might be available for refugees entering EU (2 March).

Financial assistance

Ongoing work to allow the European Investment Bank to increase lending in the region from €2.8bn in 2011-13 to €6bn; consultations on expanding lending by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development to the region; Commission refocuses its neighbourhood aid of €4bn for 2011-13 (8 March).

Diplomacy

EU offers fast-track negotiations on ‘enhanced status’ for Tunisia (14 February); Herman Van Rompuy, president of the European Council, convenes emergency meeting of EU leaders (1 March for 11 March); Ashton convenes emergency meeting of foreign ministers (3 March, for 10 March).

It looks highly unlikely at present, though, that additional funding will be made available to implement the strategy. “It’s not about funding, it’s about the goals we pursue with it,” one diplomat said. The Commission likewise speaks about “refocusing” its current support to the region as part of the European Neighbourhood Policy, rather than about additional resources.

Open questions

The strategy, a joint effort by the European Commission and Catherine Ashton, the EU’s foreign policy chief, leaves many questions unanswered, starting with the condition of a “commitment” to free and fair elections. Would an announcement by an entrenched leader that free and fair elections will be held in several years’ time be sufficient to unblock millions of euros in EU assistance? Will the EU explain what might be the “specific, measurable reforms” to which participants are expected to commit themselves?

The member states’ leaders are expected to give their political endorsement to the strategy tomorrow. But that will be only the beginning of a process, likely to be fraught with disagreement, of fleshing out its provisions and clarifying its ambiguities.

Individual member states will use the process to push their own agendas. In the wake of the Arab uprisings, France has been trying to revitalise the Union for the Mediterranean, launched in 2008 and barely operational, but there is little enthusiasm among other member states. EU leaders should avoid “getting sidetracked” by institutional questions, said one diplomat, urging priority attention to “the substance of our support to the region, knowing that it will take quite some time to actually implement”.

Even the EU’s assistance to electoral processes in Tunisia and Egypt – among the least controversial measures – is not free from politics.

Premature elections?

Thorbjørn Jagland, the secretary-general of the Council of Europe, which is preparing technical assistance for the rewriting of electoral codes in the two countries, warned last week that the democratic forces were “nervous” about the possibility that elections might be held prematurely. This would disadvantage new political parties, which may not have had time to organise properly.

Jagland said that it was important to “listen to the protesters” because the elections “also have to have legitimacy in the street”. It would be troubling for the EU to be seen as endorsing an electoral process that many of its participants believe to be flawed, he said.