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How Barnier could be EU’s Trojan horse

Michel Barnier, the EU's chief Brexit negotiator | European Parliament

How Barnier could be EU’s Trojan horse

Brexit negotiator says he won’t be the conservative Spitzenkandidat, but he could still get his dream job.

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Michel Barnier’s decision not to seek the European People’s Party nomination for Commission president poses the latest threat to the EU’s Spitzenkandidat process.

Barnier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, has long harbored ambitions for the Commission’s top post, but announced Friday that he would not seek his party’s nomination in order to remain focused on the talks with the U.K.

According to the Spitzenkandidat procedure as it was followed in 2014, the European Council is expected to nominate the lead candidate from the party that wins the most seats in the European Parliament election, with the choice confirmed by a vote in Parliament.

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EU national leaders, however, have already warned that legally they could not, and would not, be bound by the process, because it strips away their discretion. And some political groups, especially the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe, have lost enthusiasm for the Spitzenkandidat system, viewing it as overwhelmingly favoring the EPP, the center-right party which is widely expected to once again win the most seats in Parliament next year.

However, Barnier’s decision not to seek the EPP nomination means that the Council could potentially draft him as a capable, and popular, candidate — presuming, of course, that he leads the Brexit talks to a successful outcome — even though he did not run as a Spitzenkandidat.

While the Parliament has adopted a resolution saying it would only vote for someone who runs as a Spitzenkandidat, rejecting Barnier would be difficult given his long career in government service, both in France and the EU.

In his letter on Friday to the EPP president, Joseph Daul, Barnier didn’t state that he is no longer interested in the Commission presidency. Rather, he focused on the complexity of the Brexit talks and his intention to see that “mission” through to its completion.

“It is my duty to remain committed, with all my energy and my determination,” he said.

In the short term, Barnier’s decision stands to boost the chances of former Finnish Prime Minister Alexander Stubb, who is widely expected to join the contest for the EPP nomination. So far, the only declared candidate is Manfred Weber, the German leader of the EPP group in Parliament, who has the backing of Angela Merkel but no prior executive experience.

Longer term, Barnier’s decision might reflect his effort to solve a problem even thornier than the question of how to avoid a hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland — how to keep his dream of becoming Commission president alive without being seen as shirking his Brexit responsibilities.

It will be no small trick if he can pull it off — and some EPP insiders reckon that Barnier’s chances of being Commission chief are over.

But there were immediate signs that Barnier could be on his way to pulling off a Houdini-like maneuver, in which he emerges from the handcuffs and chains of the Brexit negotiations to triumphantly claim his dream job.

“Putting the mission that has been handed to him collectively by the 27 member states and the Commission above his personal ambition and party politics, Respect!” Arnaud Danjean, a French MEP from the EPP, wrote on Twitter, lauding Barnier’s selflessness.

Stubb, in a Twitter post, noted his “admiration and respect” for Barnier.

In his letter to Daul, Barnier noted that the EPP’s timetable for choosing a Spitzenkandidat — with a deadline for nominations of October 17 and a vote at a party congress in Helsinki on November 8 — posed a direct conflict with his Brexit duties.

“This commitment today is not compatible with the timeline set by the EPP for the selection of its lead candidate for the European election,” he wrote.

With a withdrawal treaty still not finalized, the U.K. in political turmoil, and little progress on the future economic relationship between Britain and the EU, Barnier could not have begun campaigning for the EU’s top job.

Barnier’s predicament also highlights what critics of the Spitzenkandidat process cite as one of the system’s biggest flaws: Anyone who already has an important job, particularly sitting heads of state or government, is unlikely to give that up to campaign for the chance of winning the Commission presidency.

The letter to Daul comes just days after France’s main conservative party Les Républicains said it wants Barnier as its top candidate. But that, too, could have been problematic for Barnier given that Laurent Wauquiez, the leader of Les Républicains, has shifted the party hard to the right, and out-of-step with the EPP mainstream throughout Europe.

Barnier was also unlikely to get the support of  French President Emmanuel Macron, who is not only a rival of Les Républicains but has also made clear that he would like to shake up the EU leadership, including a generational shift away from 60-somethings such as Jean-Claude Juncker and Donald Tusk. Barnier will turn 68 in January.

By holding together the unity of the EU27, Barnier has won enormous praise for his handling of the Brexit negotiations. That a deal remains elusive is widely perceived in Brussels as being the fault of the Brits rather than Barnier and his team.

Some EU insiders believe that Barnier would be unbeatable when compared to virtually any other contender.

Daul, responding publicly to Barnier’s announcement, said the “EPP will be missing out on an excellent candidate” and expressed confidence that Barnier will bring the Brexit talks to a successful conclusion.

Authors:
David M. Herszenhorn 

and

Maïa de La Baume 

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