mobanmarketThe Brexit deadline will be pushed back again. The U.K. will not leave the EU on April 12.
This much was certain as EU leaders swarmed into Brussels on Wednesday for their latest summit on the tortured Brexit process.
Beyond that, many details remain to be locked down — most importantly the length of the extension and any attenuating conditions, including an expected pledge of “sincere cooperation” by the U.K. during its prolonged membership.
EU diplomats said they believe it would be very important to the 27 leaders to hear U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May express such a commitment aloud, even as they realize that there is no legal mechanism to compel good behavior by Britain any more than any other potential rabble-rousing country.
“Legally speaking, you cannot constrain the rights and responsibilities an EU member state has,” an EU diplomat said Wednesday.
But while there was general consensus about the desire for such a pledge of good faith, diplomats and officials said leaders are still of different minds about the length of an extension, with Council President Donald Tusk pushing for a longer delay of up to a year or more, and Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz leading a push for a shorter postponement that would maintain pressure on the British government to resolve the uncertainty in London once and for all.
In a sign of the continuing uncertainty, diplomats gave up on the possibility of holding yet another preparatory session on Wednesday afternoon and decided instead simply to put their latest draft conclusions directly in front of the EU27 leaders to discuss during their dinner meeting.
Diplomats said the European Commission has come around to Tusk’s “flextension” concept, which would allow the U.K. to continue working on the terms of its departure for up to a year, and then exit as soon as it was ready — provided that Britain participate in European Parliament election in May.
But some EU leaders were still chafing at the lack of a concrete plan from May’s government over how it would end the continuing dissension and division in London and win ratification of the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement in the House of Commons.
French President Emmanuel Macron, who had initially raised the possibility of rejecting the U.K.’s request for a delay, seems to have softened his position, but France is said to still be in support of tightening the conditional screws on Britain in exchange for a postponement.
“What is envisaged now appears to us as insufficient,” said an EU diplomat. “The longer the extension is, the tougher conditions must be.”
The diplomat added: “If there is a commitment to stay, we need very strict conditions on the functioning of the EU and institutions.”
May has been negotiating with her political nemesis, Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, in hopes of achieving a cross-party deal — one that would almost certainly involve a “softer” Brexit that involves Britain remaining in a customs union with the EU. In recent days, Labour officials have accused May and her government of not being sufficiently willing to compromise.
EU officials said that political events in the U.K. would unfold swiftly and unpredictably once the new extension is made official, including the possibility that May’s talks with Corbyn could collapse and that May would be ousted. In any event, the EU27 leaders have long accepted that they cannot control events in London.
“Whether there is a new prime minister or new government or elections or whatever in the U.K., that’s up to them,” the senior diplomat said. “We want a couple of things: one, to avoid an unmanaged Brexit, a hard Brexit; two, to get this deal across the table as soon as possible.”
In the run-up to Wednesday’s summit, EU officials appear to have reassured themselves that Britain’s ability to sabotage the bloc’s operations over the next 10 to 12 months is extremely limited — in part because legislative work has effectively stopped in preparation for the May European Parliament election and is not expected to resume at full tilt until after the new Commission is formed next fall.
On leadership issues, diplomats said they see minimal risk. The Council nominates a new Commission president by qualified majority — giving the British prime minister limited ability to tip the vote. The Council chooses its own president, traditionally by unanimity but legally by a simple majority. Again, Britain’s leverage is minimal.
More importantly, officials said, the U.K. had shown no indication in the Brexit process so far that it would resort to damaging or disruptive behavior — and Britain’s desire to achieve a future free-trade deal or other economic agreement with the EU would create its own incentive to avoid negative actions that would poison the well of future negotiations.
Overall, though, EU27 leaders appear to have accepted that the potential political and economic damage of a no-deal departure effectively tied their hands when it came to granting the U.K.’s postponement request.
“Awareness of political and economic damage of no-deal is growing among EU27,” Polish EU Affairs Minister Konrad Szymański said ahead of the summit. “It’s a new tone of many capitals.”
Szymański said the EU27 has come to recognize that the damage of no-deal would extend far beyond even the scope of the Withdrawal Agreement that was reached in November and while the U.K. would be hit hardest, the EU would also suffer.
Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babiš told POLITICO on Wednesday that he hopes his fellow leaders would support Tusk’s proposal of a longer extension.
Babiš called May’s letter to the EU last week requesting the extension a “good signal, namely her commitment to hold EP elections.”
“The integrity of the EU is essential for me but I am inclined to be flexible as regards a longer extension as suggested by President Tusk,” Babiš said. “I know that some colleagues are worried but I am hoping for a positive outcome.”