mobanmarketSenate Republican strategists are pushing Secretary of State Mike PompeoMichael (Mike) Richard PompeoPompeo: US response to Floyd protests a ‘stark contrast’ to authoritarian regimes Trump administration accuses international court of corruption at ‘highest levels,’ authorizes sanctions A crisis on the Korean peninsula reinforces the need for allies MORE as a failsafe candidate to keep retiring Sen. Pat RobertsCharles (Pat) Patrick RobertsTrump tweets spark fresh headache for Republicans Trump’s tweet on protester sparks GOP backlash GOP lawmakers stick to Trump amid new criticism MORE’s (Kan.) seat in Republican hands in 2020, fearing the state could give Democrats an upset victory.
The push comes as Kansas Republicans have been chastened by recent Democratic victories in the state’s race for governor, where Laura Kelly beat conservative Republican Kris Kobach, and a key House race, where Democrat Sharice DavidsSharice DavidsBiden launches program to turn out LGBTQ vote Minority caucuses call for quick action on police reform Gun control group rolls out House endorsements MORE beat incumbent Rep. Kevin YoderKevin Wayne YoderSharice Davids to vote for Trump impeachment articles: ‘The facts are uncontested’ Feehery: How Republicans can win back the suburbs K Street giants scoop up coveted ex-lawmakers MORE (R).
“We lost a governor’s race. We lost a key House race for a seat that was held by Republicans for several terms. We can’t afford to head into November of 2020 worried about whether a Republican can hang onto the Senate seat in a Republican state like Kansas,” said a Senate GOP strategist.
“If Mike Pompeo is the nominee in Kansas, the race comes off the map,” the strategist added. “And, by the way, he would make a phenomenal senator.”
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Republicans are also worried about a strong Democratic performance in the 2020 presidential election, when Democratic turnout is typically stronger, and Trump’s low popularity in suburban areas, as seen in the 2018 midterm election.
Strategists say that Sen. Ted CruzRafael (Ted) Edward CruzSenate advances public lands bill in late-night vote The Hill’s Morning Report – Trump’s public standing sags after Floyd protests GOP senators introduce resolution opposing calls to defund the police MORE’s (R) narrow reelection over liberal Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D) in Texas opened their eyes to the danger faced by Republican candidates even in deep-red states because of the unpredictable political currents stoked by Trump.
“Trump has a serious problem with urban women,” said a third GOP strategist with strong ties to Kansas.
“Even in Texas, there was a massive undervote where 300,000 Republican voters who supported Greg Abbot didn’t support Cruz,” the source added, referring to Texas Gov. Greg Abbott’s reelection.
There’s fear among Republicans that Trump may weigh on the federal race by turning off middle-of-the-road Republicans and suburban women.
The GOP strategist with Kansas ties noted that two lawmakers from the Kansas City suburbs, state Sen. Dinah Sykes and state Rep. Stephanie Clayton, last month announced they would leave the Republican Party to represent their districts as Democrats.
“I’m sure McConnell is nervous,” the source said, speculating that Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnellAddison (Mitch) Mitchell McConnellSenate advances public lands bill in late-night vote GOP senator to try to reverse requirement that Pentagon remove Confederate names from bases No, ‘blue states’ do not bail out ‘red states’ MORE (R-Ky.) would love to see Pompeo run for Roberts’s seat. “If you can have someone like Kevin Yoder lose in the 3rd District, I would be nervous. That state is purple.”
The Kansas Senate race made Republican leaders in Washington sweat in 2014 when Roberts ran into a tougher-than-expected challenge from independent challenger Greg Orman, who was expected to caucus with the Democrats.
Polls showed Orman leading Roberts weeks before Election Day, but the Republican senator rallied to win by 10 points.
Roberts, at the urging of leadership-connected strategists in Washington, hired campaign whizz Corry Bliss to turn around his floundering campaign.
The big question is whether Pompeo would be interested. He is one of Trump’s most trusted advisers and secretary of State is generally seen as a more prestigious position than senator.
Former Sens. Hillary ClintonHillary Diane Rodham ClintonWhite House accuses Biden of pushing ‘conspiracy theories’ with Trump election claim Biden courts younger voters — who have been a weakness Trayvon Martin’s mother Sybrina Fulton qualifies to run for county commissioner in Florida MORE (D-N.Y.) and John KerryJohn Forbes KerryThe Memo: Trump’s troubles deepen as voters see country on wrong path The continuous whipsawing of climate change policy Budowsky: United Democrats and Biden’s New Deal MORE (D-Mass.) both left Congress to head the State Department under former President Obama.
But Trump’s Cabinet has been marked by a rapid rate of turnover, and favorite advisers can find themselves quickly on the outs, such as former Defense Secretary James MattisJames Norman MattisMilley discussed resigning from post after Trump photo-op: report Hundreds of West Point alumni call out Esper over military’s role in protests OVERNIGHT DEFENSE: Joint Chiefs chairman says he regrets participating in Trump photo-op | GOP senators back Joint Chiefs chairman who voiced regret over Trump photo-op | Senate panel approves 0B defense policy bill MORE and former White House chief of staff John KellyJohn Francis KellyMORE.
The State Department press office did not respond to a request for comment Friday.
Republicans currently control 53 seats in the Senate but they face a much tougher election map in 2020 than they did in 2018, when they picked up two seats. The GOP will have to defend 22 Senate seats next year.
The early focus has been on vulnerable incumbent Sens. Cory GardnerCory Scott GardnerSenate advances public lands bill in late-night vote OVERNIGHT ENERGY: Interior faces legal scrutiny for keeping controversial acting leaders in office | White House faces suit on order lifting endangered species protections | Lawmakers seek investigation of Park Police after clearing of protesters The Hill’s Campaign Report: Republicans go on attack over calls to ‘defund the police’ MORE (R-Colo.) and Susan CollinsSusan Margaret CollinsRepublicans prepare to punt on next COVID-19 relief bill Trump tweets spark fresh headache for Republicans Trump’s tweet on protester sparks GOP backlash MORE (R-Maine), who face reelection in states Clinton carried in 2016, but the announcement Friday that Roberts will not run for a fifth term has also put Kansas on the map.
“Everyone would like him to run because he was strong in his district and I think he’s got a million dollars in his campaign account,” said another Republican strategist. “He graduated No. 1 in his class from West Point.”
Pompeo represented Kansas’s 4th District for three terms in the House before Trump tapped him to serve as Central Intelligence Agency director in 2017. He consistently won reelection with more than 60 percent of the vote.
A report filed with the Federal Election Commission shows that his old House campaign account has $989,000 in cash on hand.
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State Rep. J.R. Claeys (R), who served as Kobach’s campaign manager in his 2018 gubernatorial bid, said fears of a Democratic takeover in Kansas are overblown.
But he acknowledged that Pompeo would rise to the top of the field if he decided to run for the Senate.
“I don’t know about it being a seat vulnerable to Democrats. I think that’s probably an inflated claim. We’ve got the longest streak in the nation, I think, on holding both seats in Republican hands,” he said. “I think we’ll have a solid field on the Republican side.”
“But, yeah, I think Pompeo would definitely rise to the top of any field of candidates,” he added.
Claeys said he doesn’t know what Pompeo might be thinking, but speculated the race could be tempting given that he would be an early favorite.
“I think it would be hard for anyone in that position to not consider it,” he said. “He’s the secretary of State right now. It would be tough for him to give up that position to run for Senate, though I do think he would consider it.”
Claeys said other possible candidates include Rep. Roger MarshallRoger W. MarshallDeadline for Kansas Senate race passes without Pompeo filing The 10 Senate seats most likely to flip Family Research Council endorses Roger Marshall in Kansas Senate primary MORE (R-Kan.) from the 1st District, sitting Kansas Gov. Jeff Colyer, who took the job when former Gov. Sam Brownback left to become an ambassador, and businessman Wink Hartman.
Meanwhile, Matt Schlapp, chairman of the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), is believed to be considering a Senate bid and started to get calls about a potential run on Friday, according to The Washington Examiner.
Kobach could also run for the seat and be a serious contender, although Claeys said he’s unsure if his former boss is interested.
Another name that has emerged is recently retired Rep. Lynn JenkinsLynn Haag JenkinsBottom line Former GOP Rep. Costello launches lobbying shop Kansas Republican dropping Senate bid to challenge GOP rep MORE (R-Kan.), who represented the 2nd District.
But Jenkins recently got married and is starting her own lobbying firm, so GOP strategists don’t think she’s likely to run for Senate.