mobanmarketTwo dozen Democrats have entered the primary to take on President TrumpDonald John TrumpSenate advances public lands bill in late-night vote Warren, Democrats urge Trump to back down from veto threat over changing Confederate-named bases Esper orders ‘After Action Review’ of National Guard’s role in protests MORE, a historically high number that will create unique challenges for the party, the media and the candidates themselves.
The field includes six women and six people of color — though 18 of the candidates are male while 18 are white.
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A former vice president, Joe BidenJoe BidenHillicon Valley: Biden calls on Facebook to change political speech rules | Dems demand hearings after Georgia election chaos | Microsoft stops selling facial recognition tech to police Trump finalizing executive order calling on police to use ‘force with compassion’ The Hill’s Campaign Report: Biden campaign goes on offensive against Facebook MORE, is the clear front-runner, but his challengers include seven senators, four members of the House and two sitting governors.
The mayor of the nation’s largest city — Bill de BlasioBill de BlasioProtesters splash red paint on NYC streets to symbolize blood De Blasio: Robert E Lee’s ‘name should be taken off everything in America, period’ House Democratic whip pushes back on calls to defund police: We need to focus on reform MORE — is in the race, along with two other mayors. De Blasio is a heavy, heavy underdog, but Pete ButtigiegPete ButtigiegScaled-back Pride Month poses challenges for fundraising, outreach Biden hopes to pick VP by Aug. 1 It’s as if a Trump operative infiltrated the Democratic primary process MORE, the major of the much smaller South Bend, Ind., is considered a dark horse candidate.
Oprah WinfreyOprah Gail WinfreyMinnesota health officials say graduation ceremony exposed people to coronavirus The Hill’s Morning Report – Presented by Facebook – Trump threatens coronavirus funds for states easing voting Oprah Winfrey doles out coronavirus relief grants to home cities MORE’s spiritual adviser, Marianne WilliamsonMarianne WilliamsonMarianne Williamson touts endorsements for progressive congressional candidates The Hill’s 12:30 Report: Warren becomes latest 2020 rival to back Biden The Hill’s Campaign Report: Biden looks to stretch lead in Tuesday contests MORE, is also part of the field, along with businessman Andrew YangAndrew YangGeorge Floyd protests show corporations must support racial and economic equality Andrew Yang discusses his universal basic income pilot program Andrew Yang on the George Floyd protests in Minneapolis MORE, one of the first Asian Americans to run for president.
It’s the largest presidential field for Democrats in recent memory, and a much larger number of candidates than in 2016, when the first debate included just five candidates. It resembles the 2016 field for Republicans, though Democrats have more candidates than the GOP had in the last cycle too.
The big field reflects an optimism in the party that Trump is ripe for the picking in 2020.
Trump lost the popular vote in the 2016 election to former Secretary of State Hillary ClintonHillary Diane Rodham ClintonWhite House accuses Biden of pushing ‘conspiracy theories’ with Trump election claim Biden courts younger voters — who have been a weakness Trayvon Martin’s mother Sybrina Fulton qualifies to run for county commissioner in Florida MORE, and there’s a sense among Democrats that the president was fortunate to be running against an opponent who was carrying sizable baggage — one who had to deal with Russian interference in the election and a nagging FBI investigation.
Yet even if Democrats see Trump as eminently beatable, there are also worries among the Democratic faithful bordering on paranoia that their party will manage to bungle the primary and hand Trump another four years in office.
“It’s going to be volatile,” said Jon Reinish, a New York-based Democratic strategist.
Biden has put electability at the center of his campaign pitch, and along with the nostalgia Democrats feel toward the Obama years it largely explains his place in the polls.
Sen. Bernie SandersBernie SandersThe Hill’s 12:30 Report: Milley apologizes for church photo-op Harris grapples with defund the police movement amid veep talk Biden courts younger voters — who have been a weakness MORE (I-Vt.) is the top candidate chasing Biden, but opposition to the democratic socialist from Clinton supporters bitter over 2016 and Democrats who don’t like that he isn’t a member of their party raises real questions about his ceiling.
Sen. Elizabeth WarrenElizabeth WarrenWarren, Democrats urge Trump to back down from veto threat over changing Confederate-named bases OVERNIGHT DEFENSE: Joint Chiefs chairman says he regrets participating in Trump photo-op | GOP senators back Joint Chiefs chairman who voiced regret over Trump photo-op | Senate panel approves 0B defense policy bill Trump on collision course with Congress over bases with Confederate names MORE (D-Mass.) is competing for the progressive lane with Sanders and has been building some momentum with a series of policy pronouncements. A newer face, Sen. Kamala HarrisKamala Devi HarrisRand Paul introduces bill to end no-knock warrants The Hill’s Campaign Report: Biden campaign goes on offensive against Facebook McEnany says Juneteenth is a very ‘meaningful’ day to Trump MORE (D-Calif.), is also seen as a serious contender and has been polling steadily.
Along with Buttigieg, former Rep. Beto O’RourkeBeto O’RourkeBiden will help close out Texas Democrats’ virtual convention: report O’Rourke on Texas reopening: ‘Dangerous, dumb and weak’ Parties gear up for battle over Texas state House MORE (D-Texas) has been seen as one of the top six candidates, though this week he appeared to be trying to reset his campaign after a stumbling start.
That leaves another 18 candidates chasing the pack of front-runners, with a winnowing process set to begin as early as next month. The first presidential debates will also take place in June.
The main problem for the low-polling candidates at this point isn’t that they’re unpopular, but that they’re relative unknowns. Buttigieg has broken out with viral moments, but that hasn’t happened so far for other candidates such as Rep. Tim RyanTimothy (Tim) RyanMinnesota AG Keith Ellison says racism is a bigger problem than police behavior; 21 states see uptick in cases amid efforts to reopen Congress must fill the leadership void Pelosi pushes to unite party on coronavirus bill despite grumbling from left MORE (D-Ohio), or former Colorado Gov. John HickenlooperJohn HickenlooperGun control group rolls out first round of Senate endorsements The Hill’s Campaign Report: Republicans go on attack over calls to ‘defund the police’ Hickenlooper ethics questions open him up to attack MORE.
And with so many people in the race, it’s going to be that much harder to win attention.
The first debates in Miami will take place over two nights in late June and will represent a pivotal moment for the candidates and the Democratic National Committee (DNC), which faces difficult decisions as debate coordinator and all-purpose arbiter of the free-for-all.
“It’s about getting that star turn,” said Doug Thornell, a Democratic strategist in Washington. “I expect some folks who we’re not talking about right now will have their moment in the spotlight. It’s a question of how long they can make it last.”
The DNC’s task is to pull off the debates without being seen as putting a finger on the scale in favor of anyone.
It is capping the number of participants at 20 people, with 10 Democrats competing on stage each night.
It appears that 18 Democrats have already reached the fundraising or polling thresholds to qualify for the stage. With a month to go, others could still hit the mark.
At that point, the DNC might have to turn to tie-breakers to keep the debate field at 20.
“If you’re not on that debate stage, your campaign is basically on life support,” said Thornell.
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The lineup on each night is another potential source of controversy, as the DNC has said it will randomly draw to determine who goes when.
Democrats have so far applauded the DNC for being transparent and inclusive in the process, but the high stakes and the high number of contenders is a minefield for the national party as it seeks to recover from its widely-panned handling of the 2016 primary race.
“The challenge for the DNC here is to maintain order,” Reinish said. “It’s a tough needle to thread but they’re doing it.”
The news media will be under the microscope and could play an outsize role in the outcome.
There are too many candidates for the press to cover in depth, so news outlets will be making strategic decisions about who is most deserving of coverage.
There have been complaints that the female candidates — Harris and Warren in particular — have not received the same amount of attention as male rivals such as Buttigieg and O’Rourke.
O’Rourke was a media sensation in 2018, when he nearly toppled Sen. Ted CruzRafael (Ted) Edward CruzSenate advances public lands bill in late-night vote The Hill’s Morning Report – Trump’s public standing sags after Floyd protests GOP senators introduce resolution opposing calls to defund the police MORE (R) in Texas.
Now, the narrative gathering around O’Rourke is about how he’s lost momentum and plunged in the polls.
Buttigieg has risen in his place, overtaking O’Rourke as the hot young Democratic star of the moment. Stories about Buttigieg’s momentum have helped him raise millions of dollars and land top operatives and donors away from other campaigns.
Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina are crowded with contenders setting up their caucus operations, holding town hall events or visiting African American churches.
The saturation in the early-voting states have led some candidates to begin introducing themselves to voters in Super Tuesday states, such as delegate-rich Texas and California, or Virginia, where the proximity to Washington, D.C., makes it likelier a candidate will attract national media attention.
The candidates are angling for attention on picket lines in an effort to show solidarity with the ascendant labor movement. And they’re releasing scores of ambitious policy proposals that are unlikely to ever be enacted but help to draw contrasts with their rivals.
The accelerated pace of the race might require candidates to start spending on national television ads sooner than they liked.
Some are accepting invitations to town hall events on Fox News in an effort to bank as much time as possible in front of a national audience. The aim is to produce the kind of the viral internet moment that has the potential to alter the course of a campaign.
“One of the problems with a crowded field is that voters don’t have the ability to pay attention to every single one of the candidates, they’re following cues from the media in terms of who’s hot and who’s not,” said Patrick Murray, the polling director at Monmouth University. “Timing is going to be everything for the candidates in a race like this.”
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